On a monthly basis, we will be providing you with news and updates in the field of paper recycling and we hope that our content will be beneficial to you and your business.
Benelux: calm before the storm?
It has been awfully quiet the last couple of weeks. Recycling plants complained of low input and lack of inquiries. Export orders for OCC were fulfilled throughout the month April and no real significant new positions have been taken. Typically, April is short and quiet month but this year the situation seems too serene. Is this the calm before the storm?
Demand for Benelux OCC has been strong all year. In the beginning of the year export was the thriving power behind the demand whereas now, both export, internal demand and German buyers have been pulling on the tons from the lowlands.
Export markets will have to step up their effort to acquire tons beginning of May. Ramadan has ended in Indonesia and other markets, which have been relatively silent, are waking up again.
Internal demand in the Benelux has been stable the last few months but increased purchasing activity has been registered from VPK Belgium and Smurfit Kappa Roermond.
In the meantime, in the beautiful eastern Dutch area around Eerbeek, paper mills like Stora Enso de Hoop and Folding Boxboard have taken unusual amount of down-time. De Hoop is struggling to maintain its relatively old paper machines, and at Folding Boxboard it’s just the lack of economic orders that make the situation difficult. Claims have been made that, due to this circumstance, Baiersbronn Frischfaser, the 2nd mill within the Oaktree investment group, will be shutdown somewhere soon.
‘Spotlot’ prices highlight a still relatively lifeless German market
A rather schizophrenic German market is looking for direction. Board mills have poor order position, but contradictory see their raw materials stock slink through low collection and sales of raw materials to export markets. Through April various ‘grey’ market sales – at a price 10-15 euro/to higher than the market – appeared to have been concluded. This has forced most of the buyers to adapt to this new situation. With many mills grasping for air, these price increases could lead to further deterioration of the situation.
To overcome the fear that stocks will get exhausted, liner and board mills have continued looking for extra material. For May, therefore, another slight increase in prices of OCC and mixed is expected. German mills typically have a large portion of their purchases covered through contracted tonnage (i.e. EUWID, PIX and the German statistical office “Statistisches Bundesamt”) but this year it seems that the percentage is lower than the last 5 years. This puts even more pressure on the “free” market as the tons are bought on spot and have not been secured for a longer period.
Order position of the overall liner and board industry continues to be worrying. Demand for packaging remains relatively weak and it is therefore surprising that some mills have announced price increases for liner grades. Many corrugators and packaging producers feel the economic downturn and will probably not accept higher prices.
News and magazine paper manufacturers are still struggling to get in enough finished paper orders party because they relentlessly try to avoid any product price drops, and thus the demand for deinkable grades remain weak. UPM is said to have begun selling of wastepaper stock externally in Germany as contract tonnage continues to be delivered and not enough is digested. This has put further pressure on the market for news, magazines, and other deinking grades. A drop in prices for deinking grades is foreseen once again. Was deinking sold in July 2022 at 320-350 € per mt, now a price of 140-150 € per mt in May seems realistic.
Multigrade and printers waste prices slide down, SOP not flushed away anymore
Due to the difficult situation at the liner and board mills, the higher grades of wastepaper have been less popular the last period. Multigrade or German Multidruck (used by board mills as “cleaning layer” between brown and white fiber) are probably traded at lower prices in May. The biggest consumers in the German market: Varel papermill, Hamburger Containerboard Spremberg, Steinbeiss Temming and Niederauer Mühle, are all anticipated to buy less material or have good stock position for May. Tissue mills prefer sop and printers waste as the yield is slightly higher and therefore are not an alternative for the lack of demand from the board mills.
The drought in demand for SOP looks slightly over. This quality – of which the supply often peaks in the first 3 months – is sought after moderately better than in the 1st quarter. Excess stock was sold to export markets or has found other buyers in Europe, increasing the overall appetite again.
What the higher grades are concerned – due to sloping pulp prices – we see pressure mounting to adjust the prices downward. In quarter 1, German mills were willing to pay 680-720 € per mt for hard white shavings (3.18.00), whereas now the market price is expected to end up around 610-650 € per mt depending on buyer and quality. The price remains pressured through May and June.
Lastly, scanboard grades are almost unmarketable. Smurfit Kappa – the biggest buyer in Germany – remains reluctant to buy tonnage as their GD sales sense weak market demand. Smurfit has announced another price cut for the scanboard grades of 20 € per mt.
Sudden dry fall of collection in the south
A drop in collection in southern Europe has increased the call for domestic price increases. Export buyers have been very active in this area and therefore stock at the recyclers is quite low. Italian and Spanish mills feel the lower and collection and have been active in other European markets to fill some holes. Especially the name Saica is heard more often in the south of Germany.
Middle and better grades are well sought after and prices in the south are slightly higher than in the rest of Europe.
India probes for lower prices, Indonesia wakes up after Ramadan
Indian buyers have been probing for lower OCC prices the last weeks. As the number of other buyers were limited, European and US sales were directed more towards the country with now the highest population in the world. The increased number of offers were met with the request for lower prices. Partly successful, Indian buyers lowered the price for EOCC, America OCC grades and kraft grades. EOCC is now sold at 150-155 $ per mt CNF Mundra/Nhava Sheva with sales even registered as low as 145 $ per mt.
The Indian market is historically different from other Asian markets. Indian mills are smaller and mostly family owned and differ from other Asian mills in that fashion. This allows them to quicker respond to changing market conditions, but unfortunately also makes them vulnerable to reduced market activity and decreased finished paper demand. Indian export of finished paper has taken a hit the last year and internal demand is not sufficient to keep all the mills at float. If the situation remains the same, closures of some production facilities in India is inevitable. The cry for lower raw materials is therefore very comprehensible but the global market, nevertheless, does what it likes.
After the Islamic period of Ramadan, Indonesian buyers will come back to the market again this month. It could be a good moment to step back in because other export markets (Vietnam and Thailand) have not really been able to capitalize on the slightly sleeping markets.
Returning Indonesian inquiry could spark a new price explosion as the total global collected recovered paper quantity remains low. An improved order position of the Asian mills, as a result of improving Chinese market conditions after the covid period misery, could mount even more pressure on global markets.
Chinese finished product buyers have been spotted on the European markets once again, taking advantage of lacking internal demand. Prime A-grade sales of Euopean testliners are recorded to be sold as low as 350 $ per mt CNF Chinese mainports.
Kingsday in the Netherlands
Last week we celebrated our King’s Birthday. Every year on the 27th the Netherlands turns Orange with festivities in all cities and villages.
This day people from all races, religions and descent come together to celebrate Willem’s birthday.
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