It was holiday season. And let’s be honest: we had better things to do than send out a market report. Things like going on holiday, doing absolutely nothing and drinking beer.

But the holidays are over. Dust off your diary, dig your way through your inbox and try to remember what you were actually working on before the summer.

Meanwhile, the market certainly hasn’t stood still. Demand is picking up, prices are moving and everyone is once again pretending they know exactly where things are heading.

Welcome back. Impress is back with a vengeance.

Market News September 2026

OCC / Cardboard
OCC is in strong demand in September. In Germany, price levels for “regular” tonnes are rising to around €140–150 per tonne DAP, approximately €10 higher than in August. For OCC that has to be sourced outside the buyer’s own region, however, levels of € 165-175 per tonne spotrates DAP are being quoted for material from outside “normal” sourcing perimeters. That difference requires some perspective: € 140–150 DAP Market prices and €165-175 DAP Spotrates are not directly comparable.

Normal contract volumes flow continuously within established supply areas and relationships. These tonnes are part of the regular business and are generally traded at lower, more stable price levels.

Spot quantities are different. Mills typically source these tonnes outside their normal procurement areas when additional material is needed at short notice. They require immediate availability and are often purchased on an ex-works basis or from a specifically required region. As a result, spot prices can be significantly higher than normal contract prices.

These higher spot prices should therefore not necessarily be seen as the new market level. They are primarily a tool for mills to secure additional tonnes and relieve pressure on their regular supply base, helping to stabilize normal contract prices. The downside is that this additional buying can shift the pressure to other regions, where supply may subsequently tighten.

EUWID contract prices were around €140–145 per tonne in August. For September, we expect a modest increase to approximately €145–150.
The stronger market prices seen in September will then feed into the delayed index in October. As a result, German contract prices of around €155–160 per tonne in October already seem entirely possible.

Mixed Paper
Mixed paper remains one of the most interesting grades in the market. That may sound strange, because for years mixed paper was regarded as something of a residualcategory. That picture now seems to have changed completely.

The “standard” mixed paper available through collection systems contains an increasing proportion of cardboard fibres, making it more attractive to many paper mills. At the same time, mills are actively looking for grades that offer comparable yields and fibre efficiency. As a result, demand for mixed paper remains strong. In Germany and the Netherlands, mixed paper has traded at levels of €125–135 per tonne in recent weeks. For September, we expect a further slight increase. Contract prices are also moving around the same level.

Export OCC
After a relatively quiet summer, the export market is beginning to heat up again. India has made its presence clearly felt as a buyer over the past few weeks and is once again putting upward pressure on OCC prices. For September, levels of USD 185–190 per tonne CNF India are being reported, with several market participants expecting further increases to be possible.

The reason is straightforward: insufficient material was secured during the summer to maintain the desired inventory levels. At the same time, ocean-container availability appears to be tightening again slightly, adding further pressure to international prices. The blood is flowing through the veins of the export market again.

EUWID Indices: Do They Follow the Market, or Does the Market
Follow the Index?

Price indices were originally designed as a tool. An objective reflection of what is happening in the market. But increasingly, the question is whether the system is beginning to create its own reality. The current market situation is a good example. Market prices are rising sharply in September.

Traders know that this increase will only become fully visible in the index a month later. Because many contracts are directly linked to that index, part of October’s contract price is effectively already being determined today. That creates an interesting mechanism.

Sellers know that higher market prices today lead to higher index prices tomorrow. So why rush to sell if the same tonne is likely to be worth more in a few weeks?

Paper mills face exactly the opposite problem. They are trying to slow down price increases, but they are dealing with a market that has already priced in future increases.

As a result, negotiations sometimes seem to revolve less around current supply and demand and more around expectations. An index that was designed to follow the market is therefore beginning to influence the market itself. A self-fulfilling prophecy.

Has the European Paper Industry Lost the War?

Over the past few months, there has been a striking number of reports about mill closures, restructuring programmes and bankruptcies within the European paper industry. Some companies have been unable to find a successor. Other producers have shut down machines because the market is simply no longer the same as it was ten or twenty years ago. That leads to an uncomfortable question. Has Europe lost the competitive battle?

If you look purely at production costs, you might almost be tempted to say yes. Producers in Asia often operate larger and more modern installations. Energy costs are frequently lower, and new mills are being built with levels of efficiency that older European sites can hardly match. For certain specialty grades and paper qualities, buyers are increasingly looking outside Europe. But the story is probably not quite so black and white.

Not every closure means an industry is in decline. Sometimes it simply means outdated capacity is disappearing from the market. Machines that were state-of-the-art forty or fifty years ago can struggle to compete today with new installations producing at twice the efficiency.
The question then is not why a mill is closing. The question is why it would remain open.

The greyboard market is also clearly under pressure. Major names such as Reno de Medici, MM Karton and various independent producers are struggling to maintain margins. International competition is increasing, while demand for traditional packaging products is growing less strongly than many market participants had expected. Nevertheless, Europe remains strong in innovation, recycling technology, quality and sustainability. Perhaps we are not witnessing the loss of a war. Perhaps we are watching an industry being forced to reinvent itself.

PPWR: Opportunity or Risk for the Paper Industry?

Over the coming years, almost every company in the packaging supply chain will have to deal with the PPWR, the new European Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation. The objective of the regulation is clear: less packaging waste, greater circularity and improved recyclability of packaging. On paper, that sounds like excellent news for the paper industry. Paper and board are, after all, widely regarded as among the most recyclable packaging materials. Many brand owners are also looking for alternatives to packaging that is difficult to process within existing recycling streams. That creates opportunities.

But, as is so often the case, reality is a little more complicated. The new regulation does not only impose requirements relating to recyclability. Reuse, reporting, design requirements and administrative obligations will also play an increasingly important role. This creates a playing field in which paper packaging will not automatically beat a plastic alternative every time. Nevertheless, the overall direction seems clear. Packaging will have to become demonstrably more sustainable. In many cases, that should play directly into the hands of the paper and board industry. The main challenge is therefore probably not whether paper will continue to have a role. The challenge is proving that paper really is the best circular solution. The next five years are likely to determine which companies benefit from this development — and which are left behind.