Impress January 2026

Market developments cardboard and mixed paper

Cardboard Germany and Benelux

Sales volumes for cardboard remained weak over the past months. For the start of the year, we expect price levels to improve, driven by both Germany and the Far East. It remains uncertain whether supply will increase accordingly.

We anticipate a slight supply  crunch at the beginning of the year. Buyers within the German paper industry continue to push for stable pricing, but this will be difficult to maintain. Export demand is improving, while spot volumes are expected to increase due to fewer index-based contracts. This combination may complicate sourcing sufficient volumes.

Mixed paper Germany

Mixed paper is expected to remain a strong product throughout 2026. Available volumes are declining rapidly, while a significant share of tonnage is contractually fixed. Demand for brighter qualities continues to increase due to a lack of alternatives.

In certain months, contract prices for mixed paper are expected to exceed cardboard contract prices. Sorting mixed paper is becoming increasingly difficult. Lower sorting yields reduce incentives to sort, which further limits availability.

Export markets

Demand from Asia shows a gradual increase. India started early December at USD 140 to 142 per ton CNF for OCC 90/10. Prices increased during the month to USD 148 to 150 per ton, with a substantial number of contracts concluded at these levels. Demand does not appear fully satisfied.

So far, the impact on European pricing has been limited due to the weaker USD versus the euro, keeping FAS prices relatively stable. If European demand strengthens, Asian buyers will likely need to move higher, which may trigger a reaction in European markets.

EUWID contracts and premiums

The German paper industry pushed for lower premiums on cardboard contracts for 2026. Average premiums moved from approximately plus 64 in 2025 toward plus 56. These levels have largely been implemented.

However, contractually fixed volumes are clearly lower than in 2025. With EUWID prices closer to market levels and limited availability expected in certain months, price volatility is likely to increase during 2026.

It should be noted that average EUWID contract levels in 2025 were significantly higher than spot or alternative index-based contracts. The adjustment aims to restore credibility to the index. The quality of data input will be crucial to ensure continued relevance of EUWID in the coming years.

“Regular” Postal delivery in Europe under pressure

The postal operator in Northern Denmark has decided to remove post boxes and discontinue standard letter delivery. This development may serve as a precedent for other European markets.

Letter mail is no longer economically viable, while parcel delivery is handled by multiple providers. As a result, distribution of letters, printed advertising, and magazines is becoming increasingly challenging. This adds further structural pressure on the graphic paper segment.

Paperex 2025

As previously mentioned, we attended Paperex 2025 in New Delhi. The exhibition was held at the new Yashobhoomi venue, representing a significant upgrade compared to the former location in Greater Noida.

Overall market sentiment was positive. While negotiations remain challenging, the long-term outlook in India is constructive. The exhibition provided good opportunities for business discussions and new contacts.

India continues to show strong growth potential, with annual growth estimated at approximately 10 percent. While global market conditions remain challenging, India remains a key growth market.

Outlook

Market conditions for 2026 are expected to remain volatile. Availability, contract structures, and export demand will continue to influence pricing dynamics. Flexibility and close market monitoring remain essential.