IMpress March 2026

Kaufhaus / OCC

The past weeks were marked by subdued market sentiment. Demand remained limited, but supply was equally restrained. From the Far East, demand continued at moderate levels without clear momentum. German paper mills report that they were well supplied in February and continue to face pressure on the sales side.

Despite this environment, slight price increases were observed in the spot market. Kaufhaus/OCC prices ranged between EUR 105 and EUR 120 per ton, delivered mill in Germany and the Benelux.

On the surface, supply and demand appear balanced. In reality, this balance is fragile. Underlying volumes are not abundant, and relatively small shifts in demand can have a disproportionate impact on pricing.

An increase in collection volumes is not expected in the short term. Collection levels typically rise only when broader economic production increases. As long as this does not occur, supply remains structurally limited.

Under current conditions, even a modest improvement in demand, whether from export markets or recovering industrial production, could push prices upward relatively quickly. Downside risk appears limited.

Conclusion: upward potential currently outweighs downside risk.

Indications
Spot: EUR 110 – 120
EUWID: EUR 117 – 120

Mixed Paper

The upward pressure seen in mixed paper at the start of January disappeared during February. The seasonal oversupply at the beginning of the year, partly driven by inflows and logistical shifts, normalised quickly.

By mid-February, demand improved. Both carton mills and sorting facilities showed renewed interest in mixed paper. This supported greater stability in the market.

No significant price movements occurred, but downward pressure eased and overall sentiment improved.

Indications
Spot: EUR 95 – 110
EUWID: EUR 108 – 115

Export OCC

In the second half of February, demand from Southeast Asia slowed noticeably. Indonesia and Malaysia reduced purchasing activity. The Ramadan period traditionally results in lower trading volumes and likely contributed to this slowdown.

With Ramadan ending in the third week of March, activity from these regions is expected to increase again. India remained stable in terms of pricing.

Price indications (95/5)
India: USD 155 per mt CNF
Indonesia / Malaysia: USD 148 – 150 per mt CNF

Middle East Conflict: Trade and Energy Impact

Instability in the Middle East rarely remains regional. Developments in the area directly influence global trade routes, energy markets and currency movements. In a period where supply chains remain sensitive, further escalation would have immediate economic consequences.

Key maritime routes such as the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea and the Suez Canal remain essential to global trade. A significant share of global oil and gas exports moves through these corridors daily.

Rising tensions quickly translate into higher insurance premiums and, in some cases, rerouting of vessels via the Cape of Good Hope. This adds weeks to transit times and increases fuel costs substantially.

Such disruptions impact container rates, delivery times and ultimately end prices. Europe, highly dependent on energy and goods imports through the Suez Canal, would be particularly exposed in case of prolonged disruption.

Energy markets typically react to perceived risk even before physical supply is affected. Higher oil prices directly increase transport and production costs. For Europe, this translates into higher fuel and electricity costs, particularly in LNG-dependent countries.

The critical question is the scope of escalation. As long as key routes remain operational, markets can absorb shocks. Broader disruption would place renewed pressure on an already fragile global economy.

Testliner Pricing

Testliner producers have operated under significant margin pressure. Energy costs and recovered paper prices increased, while packaging demand weakened. Producers were unable to pass through all cost increases, resulting in compressed margins.

With demand no longer deteriorating and markets stabilising, producers are seeking margin recovery. This implies price increase initiatives not only to cover potential cost increases, but also to restore profitability.

For March, a price increase is realistic, though not guaranteed.

If raw material prices remain stable to slightly higher and production discipline continues, an increase of EUR 30 to 50 per tonne is conceivable. Without a clear improvement in demand, scope for larger increases remains limited.

In summary, a moderate upward correction is possible. Stronger movement would require both higher raw material costs and improved demand.

Transport Market Easing

January traditionally brings volatility due to post fourth quarter adjustments, contract renewals and irregular shipment patterns. When volumes enter the market simultaneously, capacity tightens and spot rates increase.

From mid-February onwards, a cooling effect is typically observed. Industrial production has not yet reached full speed across all sectors, and seasonal industries are between peak periods. Shippers return to more predictable planning cycles.

As demand softens, capacity becomes more readily available. The transport market reacts quickly, making it easier to secure trucks at more normalised rates.

On the France to Germany corridor, directional imbalance plays a structural role. Germany functions as a major industrial destination, generating strong flows from France. Return volumes are not always equally strong or evenly distributed.

During softer market periods, this creates relative overcapacity towards Germany, especially when German industrial volumes weaken. In peak periods, the situation can reverse quickly. It is not a permanently oversupplied route, but one where directional imbalance regularly exerts downward pressure on rates when overall demand eases.