📊 October Outlook: Stable but Weak

The European recovered paper market remains fragile. Prices are holding relatively stable but with a slightly weaker undertone.

· OCC (1.04 – Kaufhaus/90-10): Market price stays at 135-140 (contract) and 125-130 (spot).

· Mixed Paper (1.02): Stable to slightly lower at €120 per ton.

· Export OCC 95/5 to India: Dropped to $170 per ton.

· Transport ratio: 91 / 9%.

Market sentiment is overshadowed by limited supply and weak demand, with the poor economic climate leaving little room for optimism. Export opportunities exist, but they remain highly inconsistent.

🧻 Tissue Industry in Transition

The European tissue sector is under heavy pressure. Grey “recycled” tissue products have fallen completely out of fashion. Metsa has ended its recycled office-paper based production in Kreuzau, while players like WEPA are shifting toward brown tissue grades rather than grey products made from 100% office waste.

This trend is causing a significant oversupply of office paper on the European market. Export offers little relief: FAS India is hovering around $170 per ton, but demand is weak. Prices for the Americas are higher, but buyers are absent. The coming months will show whether the market can absorb these volumes or whether further price corrections are inevitable.

🪂 Imtrade’s 15-Year Anniversary Gift

For Imtrade’s 15th anniversary, the owners received a special gift at the end of last year: a parachute jump. At the time, Peter Paul and Bjørn were told the jump had to happen immediately. With nerves of steel, they stepped into a waiting taxi only to find out en route that the jump had been postponed. They returned to the office, shirts damp from the tension.

The jump still hasn’t taken place, but it’s scheduled for March or April 2026. Rest assured: succession, financing, and organization are all in place. To be continued…

🚢 Transport Costs: A World Upside Down

International recycling markets are sluggish, and the impact is clearly visible in falling sea freight rates. From Antwerp to an Indian mainport like Mundra now costs just $300–400, with even sharper spot offers at times. Incredibly, it is now cheaper to ship from Antwerp to India than from Antwerp to Roermond.

Meanwhile, European road transport remains expensive and constrained. Rising fuel and labor costs have kept tariffs high, and truck availability is still limited. But if freight volumes fail to recover, it’s doubtful that these elevated price levels can be sustained.

🔍 October Takeaways

• OCC and mixed paper prices remain stable to slightly lower.
• Exports to India drop to $170/t, while local markets show limited demand.
• The tissue industry shifts away from grey recycled products, causing office paper oversupply.
• Sea freight rates collapse, making Asia cheaper than domestic routes.
• European trucking remains costly and tight, though its sustainability is uncertain.
• Weak economic conditions and inconsistent export flows define the market outlook.