IMpress September 2024

From Ironman Milestones to Market Benchmarks 

A bit later than intended due to vacation and technical reasons, here is the IMpress for September 2024. 

Setting goals for oneself is a great way to challenge yourself. In our daily operations, formulating specific, measurable objectives is a challenge. Our market is continually in flux, making dynamics and activity difficult to predict. Growth is often a target, but it hasn’t been very beneficial for many companies in our industry. “Buying” market share can be costly, and suppliers’ and buyers’ memories often aren’t sufficient to maintain market share under changing conditions. In Germany, loyalty remains one of the core values, but it is also under pressure from declining margins, centralized purchasing, and company acquisitions. Your goal must be fluid—like in an aquarium—to survive in this market. 

One of our colleagues, Daan, had a significant goal in August: to complete an Ironman triathlon. 

“Daan, you are … an Ironman.” 

On August 16, a part of IMtrade traveled to Sweden to cheer on Daan. On the west coast, at the island of Öland (😊), lies the city of Kalmar, which on August 17 was entirely focused on this amazing race. While Imtrade may not have met its goal, we could at least give Daan a boost to achieve his: finishing an Ironman in under 12 hours! 

And Daan: you did it. We enjoyed your performance and the whole weekend and its surrounding festivities. It was an incredible journey for both of us. For you, a grueling yet smiling march to the finish line; for us, a fantastic celebration capturing both the struggle and the euphoria of finishing in one glance. Daan crossed the finish line in Kalmar around 6:30 PM with a time of 11 hours and 34 minutes. An extraordinary achievement. Hats off! It not only gave you but also us a sense of victory! 

Happy reading! 

EUROPE:

Bulk Grades: 
The Paper Drought: Confronting Europe’s Bulk Grades Crisis 

Market sentiment has plunged to a new low. Negativity and fear are poor advisors. The European paper market is under immense pressure. Margins on produced products have been negative or, at best, razor-thin. While a slight recovery was observed starting in March, growth has not sustained. As a speaker at the PPRC conference in Barcelona noted, the critical point for paper production lies at a capacity of 85% of total volume. We believe we have reached this point, and only by taking out capacity can a better market be created.

In September, companies in Germany such as Jass, DS Smith, Niederauer Mühle, Hamburger, and Smurfit have announced downtime. Filling order books is a significant challenge, even for companies with their own corrugating plants. Attempts are being made to dump tons to distant destinations, but this is not always successful, partly because prices are driven down to the point where not producing is cheaper than selling. Variable costs for a factory are still well above EUR 200 per ton. The price for recovered paper will likely continue to decline. 

From France, we hear that Saica is maintaining stable prices. We find this hard to believe (and cannot confirm) and suspect it might be a strategy to halt falling sales prices. 

White top testliner has been the industry’s Achilles’ heel for months. The decline in uncoated qualities is limited, and the production of coated qualities is becoming more expensive with rising costs of other auxiliaries. The demand for white coated board remains stable, but capacity has increased in recent years. Running only brown testliner or fluting on new machines also seems like a waste of resources. 

The price for mixed paper rose in July to a maximum of EUR 175-195 per ton and seems least affected by the downturn among the lower grades. Mixed paper is used by many producers, not just liner producers but also solid board, molded packaging, and graphic paper producers. The base of consumption is more varied than other types, so the price is less affected by the dip in demand for cardboard. Currently, the price for good mixed paper is higher than for standard cardboard, which reduces sorting of cardboard from collection streams. Consequently, the volume of mixed paper may increase slightly and eventually bring prices closer together. In Germany, the price for mixed paper ranges from EUR 140 to 170 per ton delivered to the factory. The demand for collection mixed paper for producing lighter paper types remains strong. 

Cardboard remains a troublesome area in Europe. Collected volumes are low, demand is weak, and exports have been clearly lower than the European market in recent months. Moreover, the gap between the market price and the Euwid price is substantial again, causing many to purchase material at too high a price. Factories announcing downtime are eager to cancel Euwid tonnages and purchase market-priced quantities at lower prices through back channels. The cat-and-mouse game is back, and what can you do? Have you delivered all your tonnage in May and June? No. Do you want to continue supplying us? Yes! 

In August, the market price for cardboard in Germany was between EUR 150-175 per ton delivered to the factory. In contrast, the price for Euwid-linked tonnages was between EUR 180-200 per ton. The gap between these two contract types is thus between EUR 25-30 per ton. For factories, this is an opportunity to save, while for suppliers, it is a chance to earn more. Strategy on the old paper market. 

For September, a decrease in cardboard prices of EUR 10-20 per ton has been announced for the northern European markets. The spot market level in Germany is expected to be between EUR 135-165 per ton delivered to the factory. Active buyers have already secured part volumes and can pressure latecomers into agreeing to a lower price. Expertise and experience will determine the price this month per factory, supplier, and trader. Suppliers who think we can hold the price level or that they can keep material until October will be in for a rude awakening. 

Deinking qualities are scarce, but demand is so concentrated that prices vary greatly at the loading point. Pressure on collection mixed paper also causes sorting to slow down. Deinking was sold in August between EUR 210-240 per ton delivered to the factory, with pre-consumer qualities like brochures, magazines, and newspapers priced EUR 20-40 per ton higher. Prices for deinkable qualities are expected to remain stable or slightly lower in September. 

Kraft qualities are mainly tied to cardboard prices and therefore decline with the downturn. The price for fruit boxes and tobacco cartons were very close in August, trading between EUR 225-260 euros per ton. Prices are expected to decrease by EUR 5-25 per ton in September, depending on the price agreed upon individually in August. 

Higher Grades 

Prices for multi-print and office paper have seen an upward trend in recent months. Despite low supply and weak demand, there has been enough activity to cause a limited price increase. Supply from England dropped significantly in August and September, leading to a stable price level even with low buyer interest. 

SOP is being sold for EUR 215-255 per ton delivered to the factory, and multi-print is finding buyers at EUR 255-295 per ton. Both grades prices are highly dependent on the quality of the product. Prices are expected to remain relatively stable. 

The market for wood-free white coated and uncoated papers is somewhat turbulent. Buyers are not eager for large quantities, but export markets still demand higher prices. Stopping imports of high-quality recovered paper types is a choice with market implications, and reversing this decision will have a delaying effect. Buyers are considering letting go of expensive tonnages, knowing that the market balance for these types can quickly shift. 

Wood-free white uncoated (3.18) was sold for EUR 520-570 per ton, while white coated (3.16) was priced between EUR 470-515 per ton delivered to the factory. Prices are under pressure, and negotiations are ongoing. 

Asia’s Summer Slumber

Bulk Grades 

In August, the sound of crickets was heard in export offices. Buyers in India, Vietnam, and other Asian markets are in summer slumber and buying only what they need: little. The Chinese economy still seems weak, affecting the entire Southeast Asian region. 

It is no surprise that large (primarily export-oriented) recovered paper trading companies are undergoing layoffs. The volume from Europe to Asia is missing, and it is clear that organizations are examining the profitability of each export area. We believe that demand will not substantially increase in the near term, and companies need to revise their strategies to navigate this period. Fragmented demand makes procurement areas difficult to manage, leading to tough decisions on office locations and staff. Much change is expected in the coming time. 

In India, the consolidation wave we described at the beginning of the year seems to have begun. Several factories have closed their doors, others are forming partnerships or changing ownership. It has long been clear that efficiency improvements are needed within the Indian paper and cardboard sector. Too many small factories are undermining each other, ultimately costing themselves. “Survival of the fittest” or “Success of the smartest.” Clever paper mill owners are acquiring other factories for relatively little money and shifting production to where it is most efficient. Eventually, there will be room for growth again, but first, a clear consolidation must occur. 

OCC 90/10 was sold in Southeast Asia for 160-165 USD/mt CNF, while in India, due to higher transport prices, it was at 180-185 USD/mt. OCC 95/5 and 98/2 were approximately 5 and 10 USD/mt higher, respectively. As mentioned, supply and demand are weak. Prices are expected to be stable to slightly higher in September. Exports from Europe are now only coming from southern countries. 

The BBC price in India is approaching 185-190 USD/mt, with strong demand from GD producers. 

Higher Grades 

A slight increase in activity around higher grades was noticeable in India. Transport prices from other Asian markets to India are very high, prompting more imports from the West. Increased demand for cellulose and SOP is noticeable. Prices are still not attractive for all exporting markets, but the improvement in buying interest is a positive sign. 

SOP is being sold in India for 210-260 USD/mt, and the multi-grade price is between 240-290 USD/mt CNF India main ports. A stable and calm market is expected for the coming month. 

OTHER NEWS

Upcoming Events and Milestones 

As we turn the page on September, our attention shifts to exciting upcoming events and personal milestones within our team. Mark your calendars for the Paper Conference in Bangkok on September 21 and 22, a gathering that promises to provide valuable insights and networking opportunities. Following closely, on September 24 and 25, we have the BVSE event, a key occasion for those involved in the paper and recycling industries.

In addition to these industry events, we celebrate significant personal milestones within our team. Richard de Vries will mark his birthday on September 10, and we eagerly anticipate his wedding celebration on September 27. It’s a time of joy and personal achievement, and we extend our warmest congratulations to him.

Our team continues to grow and evolve, with several noteworthy anniversaries and new additions to acknowledge. Brenda recently celebrated 12.5 years with the company, a testament to her dedication and hard work. Ron and Charlotte each reached their five-year anniversaries with us in July and September, respectively. Their contributions have been invaluable, and we’re grateful for their commitment. 

We’re also excited to welcome Niels Scholtens, who joins us in a new sales role. Niels brings fresh energy and expertise to our team, and we look forward to the impact he will make.  

We will introduce Niels in the next edition of the IMpress.