Impress September 2025

Monthly insights from the recovered paper market

📊 September Outlook: Stability Meets Export Pull

European markets for OCC and mixed paper remain balanced, with mills targeting €10–€20/ton price reductions, though execution may be limited. Exports are picking up, aided by the weaker euro, creating tension between domestic flows and overseas demand.

• OCC (1.04 – Kaufhaus/90-10): Contract prices edge down to €135, with spot dipping to €125.

• Mixed Paper (1.02): Contracts hold at €130, while spot softens to €110.
  

• Export OCC 95/5 to India: Prices stays at $180, reflecting renewed international interest.

This balance between domestic stability and export strength makes September a critical month for procurement strategies.

📉 Declining Tonnages of Recovered Paper

European recovered paper collection remains under strain. UK markets reported further declines in September, dropping even below already weak levels (EUWID). Collectors are gathering fewer tons per truckload, pushing up the cost per ton and reinforcing a structurally higher price floor.

Where a decade ago mixed paper could drop to €70–75 per ton, current fundamentals make sub-€100 levels nearly impossible. Resistance to lower prices is simply too high.

🏭 Independent vs. Integrated Mills

Independent paper producers such as Jass, Aviretta, and Niederauer Mühle are under severe pressure. Without the protection of in-house corrugated production, they must compete against integrated players like Smurfit, DS, and Propapier.

Integrated groups can absorb losses across their divisions, keep competitors out of their corrugated facilities, and still actively sell on the open market. Independents, meanwhile, face steep challenges minimizing losses. A broad market recovery would benefit all, but for now the gap continues to widen.

🏛️ Economic Contrast: EU vs. US Growth Outlooks

The macroeconomic backdrop remains divided:

• 📉 CEPI notes European pulp and paper output fell 12.8% in 2023, particularly in graphic paper, with high energy costs eroding competitiveness (Paper360). 
• 📈 Meanwhile, U.S. producers are expanding domestic recycled containerboard capacity, diverting more recovered paper into local consumption rather than exports (Recycling Today). 

The U.S. maintains modest growth supported by consumption and fiscal stimulus, while the EU continues to stall, raising pressure for new policy responses.

🌏 Asian Leaders Meet in Beijing

During a high-profile meeting in Beijing, Asian leaders, including those from China and India, symbolically rolled out the red carpet for President Putin—a gesture that stands in stark contrast to European perceptions. What may seem inconceivable to European policymakers illustrates the realities of geopolitics: it is not about isolated conflicts, but about positioning on the global stage. By refraining from condemning Moscow, both China and India have enhanced their leverage internationally, strengthening their influence in global negotiations. For Europe, the message is clear—condemnations alone carry little weight. Greater decisiveness, unity, and the resolve to show what we stand for are essential if Europe wishes to play a meaningful role.

🔍 September Takeaways

• OCC and mixed paper prices in Europe remain stable, with slight downward pressure.
• Export markets are regaining strength, with OCC 95/5 to India at $180.
• Collection volumes are falling, reinforcing structurally higher price floors.
• Independent mills face mounting competitive disadvantages against integrated groups.
• Innovation in ultra-light fluting highlights the sector’s shift toward packaging.
• Chinese imports intensify price competition in European board markets.
• EU stagnation contrasts with U.S. growth, shaping global trade flows.

Follow IMtrade for updates, analysis, and monthly insights.