Impress August 2025

IMpress – August 2025

Monthly insights from the recovered paper market

📊 August Outlook: Diverging Forces in a Tense Market

August brings a tug-of-war between softening domestic prices and a strengthening export market. While European mills are attempting to push down prices for subgrades (OCC and Mixed Paper) by €10–€20 per ton, the reality on the ground is more complex. Export interest is growing again, particularly from Asia, and a weakening euro is amplifying price tension. As a result, some streams of recovered paper that recently flowed into Europe may now revert to export routes. It’s a fragile balance—and one that may shift quickly in the coming weeks.

📊 OCC (1.04 – Kaufhaus/90-10): Contract prices fall from €198.97 in June to €169,97 in July and further to €145,97 in August. Spot prices decrease from €140.00 in July to €125.00 in August.

📦 Mixed Paper (1.02): Contracts decrease from €153,69 in July to €137,69 in August. Spot prices slide from €125.00 to €120.00.

🌍 Export OCC 95/5 to India: Stayed stable at $180.00 in August, supported by favorable USD/EUR exchange and increased overseas demand.

This market phase is defined by uncertainty buyers remain cautious, but exporters are eyeing new opportunities.

🌎 Export Momentum Builds: Europe at Risk of Losing Feedstock

The FAS price levels for OCC are now threatening to exceed delivered mill prices in parts of Europe. This could pull significant volumes of recovered cardboard back into export channels especially from Belgium, the Netherlands, and western France. If European mills fail to meet market expectations, they risk losing key feedstock streams.

With overseas buyers returning and shipping rates relatively stable, we may be heading for a supply bottleneck in Europe.

🏦 Industry Insight: Ultra-Light Fluting Pilot in Renkum

Smurfit Kappa and Westrock are piloting production of ultra-light fluting (60–70 gsm) in Renkum. The move signals a shift away from SC-paper production at this location toward full packaging focus.

🔹 While demand for light fluting is growing, achieving sufficient burst strength at such low grammages remains technically challenging. Whether this niche can scale remains to be seen but innovation is clearly driving strategic change.

🌐 Global Watch: Chinese Paper Floods European Market

Chinese producers are aggressively expanding their footprint in Europe with low-cost folding boxboard (FBB) and offset paper. These highly competitive prices, enabled by massive production capacity and possible dumping tactics, are challenging European producers like Metsa Board and Stora Enso.

📅 With Chinese board making its way into critical packaging segments—including pharmaceuticals—the question arises: where is your cartonboard coming from?

🏛️ Economic Snapshot: US Expands, EU Stalls

While the American economy continues to grow, much of Europe is treading water or shrinking slightly. Economists point to higher consumer spending and fiscal stimulus in the US as key drivers, while EU policymakers are under pressure to loosen their stance.

🔎 According to Bloomberg and recent ECB comments, expectations are rising for renewed stimulus packages to counteract stagnation. The coming quarters will show whether Europe can catch up or remain stuck in neutral.

🔍 August Takeaways

As summer reaches its peak, the recovered paper market is anything but relaxed. European mills are attempting to push down prices, but a resurgent export market and a weaker euro are complicating that strategy. OCC and Mixed Paper prices are slipping, but exporters may soon divert flows out of the region.

Meanwhile, global dynamics continue to shift. China’s presence in the European paper market is growing. Smurfit Kappa is testing the limits of production in Renkum. And in the broader economy, the US continues to outperform the EU, which may prompt further stimulus measures.

Expect volatility to continue through late Q3. Flexibility and forward-looking procurement will be key to navigating what lies ahead.

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