Impress July 2025

📉 July Forecast: Markets Enter a Cooling Phase

After a phase of relative stabilization in June, the recovered paper market now appears to be entering a cooling phase. The July forecast shows a general softening across all major grades, with downward movements in both contract and spot pricing. This shift suggests the market is recalibrating after months of strong demand and tight supply. As the summer progresses, stakeholders are bracing for more moderate activity, with buyers reassessing their inventories and mills cautiously adjusting production.

📊 OCC (1.04 – Kaufhaus/90/10): Contract pricing drops from €198.97 in June to €170.00, with spot pricing down from €159.00 to €140.00.

📦 Mixed Paper (1.02): Contracts fall from €180.69 to €150.00, and spot prices from €140.00 to €125.00. After a strong spring, the market is clearly recalibrating.

🌍 Export OCC 95/5 to India: Sees a minor recovery to $180.00 after slipping to $175.00 in June, pointing to cautious optimism abroad.

These movements reflect a market returning to balance, though the duration of this calm remains uncertain.

🌐 Currency Shift: Dollar Weakens Despite Global Tensions

Contrary to past patterns, geopolitical unrest hasn’t strengthened the U.S. dollar in 2025. In fact, the dollar has lost ground to the euro, due in part to market uncertainty driven by Trump’s confrontational trade rhetoric and inconsistent policy direction.

🧭 The DXY index has fallen to a multi-year low, and the USD/EUR rate nears 1.17. Analysts suggest this may mark a turning point in the global currency order (Reuters, EUWID)

A weaker dollar benefits European importers and might shift global purchasing dynamics in the months ahead.

🏭 B-Grade Dilemma: To Pause or To Dump?

The market for B-grade fluting and testliner is in flux. With custom demand lagging, mills are producing generic stock to keep machines running.

🏗️ The result: mounting inventory. Now, mills face a tough call halt production or dump material into export markets. Quiet deals and discounted shipments suggest that dumping is becoming the preferred route.

Q3 could see significant pressure on pricing and market structure if this trend accelerates.

🛡️ NATO Summit in The Hague: Symbolism vs. Substance

The €180 million NATO summit turned The Hague into a temporary fortress. While the event underscored unity amid global instability, many residents found themselves displaced from their own neighborhoods.

🌍 In today’s geopolitical climate, such high-profile gatherings may be necessary, but the cost, both fiscal and social, invites reflection. Is this the new normal, or will diplomacy soon return to calmer waters?

🔍 July Takeaways

The recovered paper market is entering a new phase marked by falling prices, hesitant buyers, and shifting global dynamics. Prices for OCC and Mixed Paper have declined significantly, confirming a broad market correction after months of intense activity. While export OCC to India shows a modest rebound, it’s still too early to call this a trend reversal. Demand abroad remains cautious.

In currency markets, the weakening U.S. dollar is notable. This shift provides a relative advantage to European buyers, who may now find imported materials more cost-effective. However, it also signals deeper concerns about global economic stability.

Meanwhile, B-grade inventories are piling up. With little custom demand, mills are facing difficult choices: either slow down production or push excess volume into export markets often at steep discounts. This behavior may lead to an unstable third quarter if not managed strategically.

Finally, the recent NATO summit in The Hague, while symbolic of unity, was also a reminder of the geopolitical tensions shaping our industry’s operating environment. Infrastructure disruptions, security measures, and policy uncertainty all contribute to a sense of unpredictability.

As we move further into Q3, staying agile and well-informed is more important than ever. IMtrade continues to monitor the landscape closely and will provide timely insights in the months ahead.

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