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Stats Spotlight: Navigating Shifting Price Trends
1.02 Mixed Paper – DAP German Mills
After months of continuous decline, the 1.02 Mixed Paper (DAP German Mills) market is showing the first signs of stabilization. The latest data indicates that both contract and spot prices have stopped falling and are beginning to recover slightly in early 2025.
Market Trends and Key Developments
📉 Prolonged Downward Trend (Mid-2024 to Late 2024) – Prices steadily declined throughout 2024, reflecting weak demand and oversupply in the recycled paper sector.
📈 Early 2025 Recovery – A modest rebound in January and February suggests a potential shift in market conditions, with prices showing their first increase in several months.
What’s Driving the Change?
- Supply Adjustments: A reduction in available material may be tightening the market.
- Increased Demand from Mills: German mills could be resuming purchases after months of lower procurement.
- Market Correction: Buyers and sellers may be reaching a new pricing equilibrium after significant declines.
Looking Ahead: Recovery or Temporary Adjustment?
While this price uptick is promising, industry analysts remain cautious. It is still unclear whether this trend represents a sustained market recovery or a temporary correction before further fluctuations.
Market participants should watch supply levels, mill demand, and macroeconomic factors to determine whether this recent stabilization will continue in the coming months.
Kaufhaus/OCC
After a prolonged period of price declines, the Kaufhaus/OCC 90/10 (DAP German Mills) market is showing signs of a modest recovery. According to the latest data, prices hit their lowest point in December 2024, followed by a gradual rebound in January and February 2025.
Price Developments
📈 Contract Prices – Previously more stable than spot prices, contract rates eventually followed the downward trend but have now begun to rise again. This increase may indicate a renewed interest from buyers or improved market conditions.
📉 Spot Prices – Reaching a low in December, spot prices have started to climb, suggesting a tightening supply or a shift in demand from mills. The gap between spot and contract prices, which had widened significantly, is now beginning to narrow.
What’s Driving the Shift?
Several factors could be contributing to this price correction:
- Supply Constraints: A potential reduction in the availability of OCC material.
- Increased Mill Demand: Paper mills may be ramping up production, requiring more recovered fiber.
- Market Adjustment: Prices could be stabilizing after months of volatility, as buyers re-enter the market.
Outlook for Q1 2025
While it is still uncertain whether this trend will continue, market analysts will be closely monitoring developments in the coming months. If demand continues to grow and supply remains tight, further price increases could be expected. However, external factors such as freight costs, energy prices, and global economic conditions will also play a key role in shaping market movements.
The industry remains in a crucial period of transition, with stakeholders evaluating whether this recent price rise is a short-term correction or the beginning of a more sustained recovery.
OCC 95/5 Exports to India
The export market for OCC 95/5 to India has experienced significant price fluctuations over recent months. While prices initially declined steadily from mid-2024, the trend reversed towards the end of the year, with a brief price recovery in January 2025 before slightly adjusting downward in February.
Market Trends and Developments
📉 Price Decline in Late 2024 – Following a stable period around $200 per ton, export prices dropped in the latter half of 2024, reflecting weaker demand from Indian mills and increased supply pressure from exporters.
📈 Short-Lived Recovery in Early 2025 – In December and January, prices rebounded, suggesting stronger purchasing activity and potentially improved market sentiment. However, the latest figures for February indicate a slight correction, signaling continued uncertainty in demand and pricing stability.
Key Factors Driving the Market
- Freight Costs: Shipping rates have been fluctuating, impacting export pricing and margins.
- Currency Exchange Rates: A stronger U.S. dollar may be affecting affordability for Indian buyers.
- Market Demand: Mills in India are adjusting their raw material procurement, leading to inconsistent purchasing patterns.
What’s Next?
With prices showing no clear directional trend, exporters remain cautious about long-term pricing commitments. Market participants will closely monitor developments in demand from Asian buyers, currency movements, and global freight conditions in the coming months.
Industry experts suggest that price stability or further increases depend on sustained demand from Indian mills and whether supply constraints emerge in key exporting regions.
Currency Update: EUR to USD Exchange Rate and Its Impact
1 EUR = 1.04 USD
Last updated: February 1, 2025
The euro-to-dollar exchange rate has hovered around this level in recent weeks, reflecting a relatively stable international currency market.
Spotlight News:
Declining Export Prices: New Orders Concluded at Lower Rates
The recovered paper export market is under pressure, with new export orders being secured at significantly lower prices. According to market data, rates are dropping by an expected average of 10 USD per ton, signaling a further decline in international trade prices.
This price drop is largely attributed to a stronger euro, weakening demand in Asian markets, and unstable container booking situation. As a result, exporters face increased competition, while buyers benefit from more favorable purchasing conditions.
With this development, the paper trade remains dynamic and uncertain. The coming weeks will be crucial in determining future price trends and their impact on both the export market and the European domestic trade.
Rising Prices for German Mills: Subgrades Up €10 per Ton
Prices for recovered paper delivered to mills in Germany are showing an upward trend. Recent contracts for subgrades have been concluded with a predicted price increase of approximately €10 per ton.
This development indicates growing demand from German paper mills, likely due to reduced availability, rising production costs, and a strengthening market for recycled paper.
The price increase for subgrades may have broader market implications, potentially leading to higher purchasing costs for paper processors and traders. The coming months will reveal whether this upward trend will persist.
Slight Decline in Recovered Paper Availability Expected in February
The recovered paper market is set for a slight shift in supply levels. Forecasts suggest that material availability in February will be slightly lower than in January.
This reduction can be attributed to various factors, including lower collection volumes after the holiday season, reduced sorting output, and fluctuating export flows. While the price impact remains uncertain, tighter supply could further support recent price increases.
Traders and paper mills are closely monitoring the situation to respond swiftly to any market shifts.
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