Impress March 2025

Market Trends & March Forecasts: Recovery in Sight?

As we move into March 2025, the recovered paper market is showing early signs of stabilization after months of pressure. While some categories remain volatile, certain grades are finding a firmer footing, with price increases expected across key materials. Demand remains uncertain, particularly from Asian buyers, who have slowed activity since mid-February.

This edition of IMpress takes a deep dive into the latest market movements, pricing trends, and what to expect in the coming weeks.

📊 Kaufhaus/OCC (DAP German Mills) – A Step Towards Recovery

After reaching a low point in January, the Kaufhaus/OCC 90/10 market is showing signs of improvement. March contract prices are expected to rise to €125 per ton, with spot prices increasing to €130 per ton. While this suggests a positive shift, market participants remain cautious.

🔹 What’s Driving This Trend?

• Mills are gradually increasing their purchasing activity as prices stabilize.
• Domestic supply is still competing with exports, influencing availability.
• The industry is adjusting to the price declines of late 2024, possibly finding a new balance.

The key question remains: Is this a temporary adjustment, or are we seeing the beginning of a longer-term recovery?

🌍 Export OCC to India – Demand Drops Amid Ramadan Influence

Export markets remain steady but under pressure as Asian buyers have scaled back purchases since mid-February. OCC 95/5 to India is holding at $175 per ton, but demand is not as strong as earlier in the year. The Ramadan period (Feb 28 – Mar 29) has led to heavy pre-loading of shipments in early 2025, causing a slowdown in recent weeks.

🔹 Market Insights:

• A large volume of cardboard exports was sent to Asia early in the year.
• Buyers are less aggressive in March, leading to a more balanced market.
• Prices appear stable for now, but demand remains weaker than expected.

The coming weeks will reveal whether Asian markets regain momentum after Ramadan or if lower demand persists into Q2.

📰 Mixed Paper – Market Stabilization in Sight?

The 1.02 Mixed Paper market is also showing signs of mild recovery. March contract prices are forecasted at €120 per ton, while spot prices climb to €110.00 per ton. This increase follows a period of low pricing and slow demand, particularly in the last quarter of 2024.

🔹 Key Drivers:

• Tighter supply after an oversupplied start to the year.
• Mills showing renewed interest in purchasing.
• The market possibly reaching a new pricing floor after steady declines.

With demand picking up, will March mark the turning point for Mixed Paper, or is this just a short-term price correction?

♻️ Deinking (1.11 / 1.06 / 2.01) – A Slow but Steady Comeback

Prices for deinking grades faced heavy pressure in February due to an oversupply of household collection material. However, March forecasts suggest a slight recovery, with demand gradually returning.

🔹 Market Outlook:

• Household collection volumes flooded the market early in 2025, keeping prices under pressure.
• March demand is improving, and both bont and deinking grades are now easier to place.
• Mills are showing renewed interest, though cautious buying strategies remain in place.

This could mark a stabilization phase for deinking, but further demand is needed to confirm a sustained recovery.

📢 Looking Ahead – What to Expect in Q2 2025?

March projections indicate a shift toward market stabilization, but external factors will play a critical role in defining the pace of recovery. Kaufhaus/OCC and Mixed Paper show promising signs, while export markets remain fragile due to lower Asian demand.

As we move into Q2 2025, key questions remain:

• Will European mills continue increasing their purchasing?
• How will export demand recover after Ramadan?
• Is this the beginning of a longer-term price stabilization?

One thing is certain: the market is in transition, and adaptability remains key.

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