Impress June 2025

📊 Price Volatility and Signs of Correction

After a turbulent spring marked by rising prices and panic buying, June brings a market that seems to be stabilizing. According to EUWID data, prices for key recovered paper grades rose sharply in May. OCC (Old Corrugated Containers) increased by €48/ton, reaching around €195/ton (delivered German mills), while mixed paper gained €44/ton. This was largely driven by limited supply, increased domestic consumption, and lingering supply chain issues.

However, the outlook for June suggests a possible correction. Buyers are more reserved, and logistical bottlenecks have slightly eased. Demand has normalized, particularly as many mills are stocked up and export demand has cooled. Contract prices for June appear to be levelling off or slightly declining across several grades, as also visualized in our updated dashboard.

According to our internal pricing dashboard, forecasts for June suggest:

• OCC 90/10: Contract prices expected around €195/ton, spot prices slightly lower (€160/ton).
• Mixed Paper (1.02): Forecasted to stabilize at €180/ton for contracts, €145/ton for spot.

🌐 Global Dynamics: US and UK Markets

United States

According to Recycling Today, U.S. exports of recovered paper have fallen significantly down 28% since 2018 on the West Coast while domestic use has surged. New mill capacity and conversions are absorbing more OCC locally. This shift may tighten global supply further, as U.S. mills reduce exports in favor of internal processing.

(Source: Recycling Today, Rema 2025 coverage)

United Kingdom

The UK experienced intense price swings in April, with mixed expectations going into May. Domestic policy shifts and volatility in export destinations continue to weigh on pricing. Sources suggest a return to relative calm in June, although prices remain elevated compared to early 2024.

(Source: EUWID UK market commentary)

🏦 Domestic Trends and Packaging Market Impact

A notable trend in May and June is the shift within the packaging industry. Demand for white top liners is declining, as retailers increasingly prefer natural brown liners. This move—driven by both sustainability and cost factors—affects recovered paper composition and demand patterns.

E-commerce continues to drive demand for corrugated cardboard, but many mills are adjusting to the changing mix of input materials.

(Source: Packaging Dive)

🚢 Export Markets: A Gradual Slowdown

OCC 95/5 export prices to India remain stable at $175 per ton. However, volumes are under pressure. After heavy pre-loading ahead of Ramadan (Feb 28 to Mar 29), activity has decreased notably. Buyers in Asia remain cautious, and many exporters report subdued demand in early June. Market watchers are uncertain whether demand will rebound in Q3.

Internal data suggests that export orders in early June were concluded at prices €10–€15/ton lower than May, indicating softening buyer positions.

↺ Outlook for July

While prices remain elevated, early June data and market sentiment suggest that the peaks seen in May are unlikely to continue. EUWID contract prices may flatten or decline slightly. Mixed paper shows signs of a new equilibrium, with fewer fluctuations. Export markets are less active than at the start of the year, and more focus is returning to the domestic mill market.

According to our conversations with market participants, material availability is expected to slightly improve in July, though some grades may still see tightness, particularly sorted household grades.

🔍 Key Insights:

• May saw dramatic price hikes across all major recovered paper grades.
• June signals stabilization or mild correction, especially for domestic German deliveries.
• U.S. and UK markets show diverging trends: U.S. favors domestic use; UK remains volatile.
• Export demand, particularly to Asia, is weaker than expected.
• Long-term dynamics increasingly depend on domestic consumption, freight conditions, and packaging design trends.
• A shift in linerboard preferences (white to brown) impacts composition and pricing of recovered paper.
• Export orders concluded at lower prices in early June reflect ongoing volatility.

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