Impress May 2025

Stability, uncertainty, and price pressure converge in a shifting market.

📉 Exports Under Pressure, German Prices Slightly Down

The export market remains slow and subdued, particularly towards Asia. Export volumes are below previous months, influenced by logistical uncertainty and hesitant buying behavior.

In Germany, we’re seeing a modest price drop for board grades. Contract prices for OCC 90/10 have softened slightly in May. Spot prices show minimal movement, reflecting a market in search of direction.

Our expectation: export conditions may stabilize in June—if freight flows improve and Asian demand picks up.

📈 Higher Grades Remain Stable – Polish Demand Supports Pricing

The market for higher grades such as 1.11 and 2.01 has remained surprisingly steady. In a volatile environment, that signals strong underlying demand rather than weakness.

In Poland, the picture is even more positive:

• Strong demand from local mills
• Rising prices for board and deinking grades
• Volume recovery compared to Q1 

Polish demand is currently acting as a regional driver of stability and price support.

📰 New Paper: Price Hike Falls Short of Expectations

In early April, a €60 per ton price increase was announced for new paper. In practice, most increases have stopped at €40, held back by muted demand and geopolitical uncertainty.

Key areas of concern include:

• Weakened demand from Southern Europe
• Slower export orders
• Reduced purchasing from larger print houses 

Whether the full price increase will be implemented still depends heavily on how demand develops in June.

🌍 Global Uncertainty Continues to Shape the Market

Political instability and economic headwinds continue to erode confidence across the supply chain. Buyers and processors alike remain cautious, leading to delays in contracting and less activity in the spot market.

Key influences at play:

• Ongoing shipping and container issues
• Declining industrial production in Germany
• Uncertainty around upcoming elections in several EU countries

The market is in motion—but without clear direction.

📦 White Top Liners Underperform in the Packaging Market

Demand for WT-Liners (white top testliners) remains weak. Once a popular choice for colorful, printed packaging, these grades are now losing ground to natural brown alternatives, fueled by the so-called “Amazon effect” and the shift toward a more sustainable image.

• Retailers are increasingly opting for neutral-looking packaging
• Less demand for visually striking or printed materials
• Webshops prefer simpler, unbranded designs when shipping high-value items

👉 For the recovered paper market, this means fewer returns of clean, white packaging—and declining demand for white fiber grades.

🚧 Holidays Disrupt Transport and Production Flows

April and May bring the usual disruption. With holidays stacked back-to-back—Good Friday, Easter, King’s Day, Labour Day, Ascension Day, and Pentecost—the industry faces a short but intense wave of interruptions.

This results in:

• Temporary production halts
• Reduced staffing in warehouses and logistics
• Slower processing of recovered materials

Would we ever consider condensing the calendar into 11 productive months and one digital downtime? Until then, it remains a challenge for planning and capacity.

🌍 Global Tensions Add Uncertainty to the Market

Where past decades saw isolated conflict zones (Afghanistan, Iraq, Georgia), we now face a new phase: geopolitical tensions among global powers.

And it’s hitting our sector too:

• Currency markets are volatile
• Shipping lanes are congested or rerouted
• Trade flows face extra costs due to duties and new regulations

The paper industry is caught between political instability and logistical complexity. Our advice? Don’t freeze; adapt. These storms are real, but with clear navigation, we can emerge stronger.

🔎 What’s Ahead for June?

We head into June with a mixed market picture. While exports remain weak, there are signs of potential stabilization within Europe. The coming weeks will be key for:

• A rebound in new paper demand
• Sustained demand from Poland
• Easing of shipping disruptions

As always, this market demands agility, insight, and up-to-date information.

📩 Missed the April edition? Catch up on IMpress – April 2025 for context on recent shifts.