Impress April 2025

Market moves. Logistics slow. Buyers panic. Welcome to spring.

📉 Panic Buying Sparks Market Chaos

The recovered paper market entered April with a bang. After a hesitant start to the year, March flipped into panic mode with mills and traders scrambling to secure volumes amid growing uncertainty.

But here’s the catch: this isn’t driven by stronger fundamentals. Instead, we’re seeing the classic bullwhip effect in action small demand shifts downstream are creating exaggerated reactions upstream.

What does that look like?

• Buyers rushing to secure tonnage, fearing future shortages.
• Stocks being overbuilt across the chain.
• Prices reacting fast and sharp especially in the domestic market.

🔍 Our outlook: Expect this turbulence to last until at least mid-May. The market will settle, but we’re not there yet.

🚢 Freight Delays Continue to Strain Supply Chains

Logistics remain a bottleneck. Global shipping lines are still rerouting via Africa, avoiding high-risk zones but adding weeks to transit times.

And that’s not all:

• Port congestion is building.
• We’re seeing signs of an early peak season.
• Container availability is limited, especially for exports.

Only a fraction of vessels are arriving on time, and that’s keeping export flows under pressure. For now, flexibility is key.

🌍 Spotlight: Altpapiertag 2025 – Bonn Sets the Tone

The recovered paper world turns to Bonn this month for Altpapiertag 2025 a key gathering for collectors, traders, and converters in Northern Europe.

The big themes:

• Industry sentiment for Q2
• Expectations on pricing and logistics
• Plenty of informal market talk between the lines

Whether you’re attending or just watching the headlines, this event will shape April’s tone.
🔗 Learn more about Altpapiertag 2025

📈 Pricing Dashboard: Panic Reflected in the Charts

March’s panic buying is now fully visible in April pricing trends.

• Kaufhaus/OCC 90/10 (DAP German Mills): Contract prices have spiked to €160 per ton, with spot reaching €185.
• Mixed Paper (1.02): Contract prices are up to €140 per ton, the highest since summer ‘24.
• Export OCC 95/5 to India: Prices hold steady at $215, but actual volumes are lower logistics and buyer inactivity in Asia are limiting flow.

We expect prices to remain elevated but unstable, especially if stockpiling continues through April.

🔎 What’s Next?

Between volatile buying behaviour and ongoing freight disruption, the market remains difficult to read. Prices are up but sentiment is fragile.

The real demand picture is still clouded by nervous purchasing. Once the panic fades, we could see corrections, especially if logistics ease and stocks rebalance.

For now:

• Stay agile.
• Monitor your supply chain closely.
• Don’t mistake panic for strength.

📩 Catch up on last month’s insights? Read the March 2025 IMpress for the lead-up to this month’s shifts.